The latest proposal won’t stop the steady decline of the coal industry.
The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to roll back more regulations on coal-fired power plants Thursday. It’s a striking move for two big reasons: No new coal plants are being built in the US, and the EPA itself (along with 12 other federal agencies) recently put out a sweeping report detailing the need to reduce emissions from fossil fuels because of the grave threat of climate change.
Axios reported this week that on Thursday afternoon the agency will announce its intent to loosen Obama-era restrictions on how much carbon dioxide new coal power plants can emit. Known as the New Source Performance Standards, a provision under the Clean Air Act, the rule established in 2015 said coal plants couldn’t emit more than 1,400 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour.
This would have likely required new coal plants to install carbon capture technologies to limit some of their emissions. But the coal industry argued in court that these technologies are too expensive and immature to deploy at scale, so the new standard is too difficult to meet. The lawsuit against the New Source Performance Standard was suspended once the EPA announced last year that it was looking to revise the rule.
According to the New York Times, the EPA wants to relax the limit to 1,900 pounds of CO2 per MWh.
These weaker standards come after an EPA proposal in August to replace another Obama regulation, the Clean Power Plan, which targets existing power plants. The replacement, the Affordable Clean Energy rule, would lead to 1,400 additional premature deaths each year by 2030, according to EPA’s own calculations.
Weakening pollution rules for existing and new coal-fired power plants is part of the Trump Administration’s strategy to resurrect the decrepit US coal industry, which has been shrinking and hemorrhaging jobs for decades.
But it’s not regulations that are hurting the US coal industry; it’s competition. Natural gas and renewables are increasingly cheaper than coal. With energy demand projected to stay level, that means it’s coal that’s going to yield.
However, the Trump’s policies stand to slow the transition toward cleaner sources of energy at a time when scientists are warning that the world may have as little as 12 years to act to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution.
Even as nations are gathering in Poland this week to discuss how to implement the Paris climate agreement, the US delegation plans to host a panel touting the virtues of fossil fuels, the biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change.
“[The rollback]’s an international signal that we’re not taking carbon capture and sequestration and reducing impacts from coal seriously,” said Jay Duffy, an associate attorney at the Clean Air Task Force.
Trump can’t save coal, but he can slow its demise
As we’ve pointed out over and over again, the coal industry in the United States has been floundering for years, and there’s little Trump can do to stop it. In 2018 alone, 20 coal-fired power plants have closed or are scheduled to shut down. Overall coal power generation capacity has fallen by one-third since 2010. And coal consumption is at its lowest level since 1979.
Meanwhile coal mining jobs have cratered from a high of more than 800,000 in the 1920s to roughly 76,000 today.
The EPA’s latest proposal only affects new coal power plants. The last new coal plant to come online in the US was the 600-megawatt John W. Turk, Jr. Power Plant in Arkansas back in 2012. It’s actually one of the most high-tech, most efficient coal power plants in the country. But with a $1.8 billion price tag, it was the most expensive project in Arkansas history.
Duffy pointed out that the Turk plant emits about 1,725 pounds of CO2 per megawatt hour, so it’s already beating the EPA’s proposed benchmarks. It’s likely that with current technology, any hypothetical new coal power plant would have to do almost nothing to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, rendering the new regulation meaningless.
“It’s nothing burger,” he said. “It’s a no-standard standard.”
Yet coal plants are closing everywhere, and no new ones are even on the drawing board. In fact, environmental groups can’t even sue to block the rule, since there is no plant in the works that could potentially violate the Obama-era greenhouse gas limits. No harm, no foul.
Where this proposal could make a difference is in extending the lives of existing plants, Duffy explained. There’s a quirk in EPA regulations that says that if you modify an existing coal plant enough, it can be considered as a new plant. So in theory, an aging power plant could get some upgrades that would extend its operating life but would also allow it to be held to the weaker greenhouse gas limit.
Taken in tandem with all of the other Trump proposals to boost coal — relaxed rules on stream protection, coal ash, and mercury — as well as curbing incentives for clean energy, it adds up to a prolonging of the steady demise of coal power in the United States.